CryptoQuant's latest analyses reveal a nuanced picture of Bitcoin's market strength, highlighting the absorption of miner selling pressure and clarifying the scale of long-term holder (LTH) distribution. According to a report shared by analyst PelinayPA, on-chain data shows a significant increase in miner-to-exchange flows, particularly to Binance. Historically, this signals miners preparing to sell, introducing potential supply pressure. However, Bitcoin's price has continued to climb, suggesting large buyers or institutions are stepping in to absorb this supply.
The data indicates that while the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages for miner exchange flows remain elevated, they are stable, pointing to a market meeting supply with sufficient demand. This absorption is viewed as a signal of underlying market strength. The current miner economics differ sharply from the 2022 bear market; with average breakeven costs estimated near $50,000, miners are not under existential pressure, making their selling appear strategic rather than forced.
In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant's Head of Research, Julio Moreno, clarified that recent record levels of Bitcoin LTH selling were inflated by internal exchange transactions. LTHs are investors holding coins for more than 155 days, typically considered resilient 'diamond hands.' In November, the 30-day sum of LTH spending hit a high of 1.55 million BTC, which was initially reported as a record.
Moreno explained that a significant portion, at least 0.65 million BTC, corresponded to internal wallet shuffling within Coinbase and did not represent true economic selling. Adjusting for these internal transfers, the peak monthly LTH spending in November was a notable 0.9 million BTC, making it the fifth-highest on record, but not a new peak. The all-time record remains from August 2017 at 1.4 million BTC. This pattern of internal exchange transactions exaggerating LTH selling was also observed in December 2018.
Together, these reports paint a picture of a Bitcoin market demonstrating resilience. Miner selling is being absorbed by demand, preventing a price breakdown, while clarified LTH data suggests holder distribution, while significant, is less extreme than initially perceived. At the time of the report, Bitcoin was trading around $93,800, up nearly 7% over the previous week.
