Over $13 million has flowed into Bitcoin call options with strike prices between $98,000 and $100,000, according to insights from Wintermute's head of OTC, Jake Ostrovskis. This significant capital deployment into high-strike calls indicates sophisticated traders are positioning for a potential Bitcoin rally towards the $100,000 psychological mark in the first quarter of 2026.
Concurrently, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju presents a contrasting view, suggesting Bitcoin may trade sideways through Q1 2026 due to declining capital inflows. Ju noted that "capital inflows into Bitcoin have dried up," with investor attention shifting towards equities and precious metals. Bitcoin was trading around $90,900 at the time of his statement, down over 2% on the day.
Historical seasonal trends may not hold this year. While January has historically delivered average returns of 3.8% for Bitcoin, with February and March averaging 13.1% and 12.2% respectively, Ju expects "boring sideways trading" instead. This sentiment is echoed by analysts Peter Brandt and Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer, who warned Bitcoin could revisit the $60,000 to $65,000 range during the year.
Market sentiment remains cautious, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index scoring 28, firmly in the "fear" territory—a trend persisting since November 2025. Despite this, institutional support persists, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing $925.3 million in net inflows during the first three trading days of 2026.
Long-term bullish forecasts remain intact. Venture capitalist Tim Draper reiterated his $250,000 price target for Bitcoin, while Bitwise's Ryan Rasmussen argued Bitcoin could break from its typical four-year cycle. Abra CEO Bill Barhydt added that anticipated looser monetary policy from the Federal Reserve could drive fresh capital into crypto markets by mid-year.
