The Benner Cycle, a 150-year-old market forecasting tool, is issuing a stark warning for 2026, categorizing it as a "Good Times" peak year where investors should consider selling assets. Created by Samuel Benner in 1875, the model suggests the global economy follows rhythmic patterns tied to agricultural and solar cycles. It divides history into repeating phases: Panic Years (market crashes), Good Times (prosperity and high prices - the time to sell), and Hard Times (low prices - the time to buy). The cycle has an "eerily accurate" track record, having identified the 1929 crash and the 2007 pre-crisis high, though it missed the exact timing of the 2020 COVID crash by a year.
For 2026, the Benner Cycle explicitly signals a market zenith, suggesting a subsequent "Hard Times" phase could last until 2032. Modern crypto analysts note a strong correlation with Bitcoin's halving cycles, forecasting that the 2026 peak aligns with a post-halving high for Bitcoin, with some estimates reaching $250,000, before a severe correction. This prediction is further supported by data showing solar activity is forecast to peak in the 2025–2026 window.
Concurrently, market analysts are observing a potential breakdown in Bitcoin's famous four-year cycle. Following the 2024 halving, BTC delivered its weakest post-halving rally on record, gaining only about +43% before momentum faded and the price fell below $100,000 in late 2025. It is currently trading around $90,000, down 28% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.
The underwhelming performance signals a broader paradigm shift where Bitcoin trades less like a volatile startup and more like a macro asset tied to global money flows. The old playbook of "buy after the halving, sell at the peak" is becoming less viable. Institutions are a key driver of this change; U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries withdrew approximately 140,000 BTC from exchanges in 2025, reducing panic selling but also diminishing the parabolic upside spikes of previous cycles.
Macroeconomic pressures are now a primary price driver. Recent US trade policy headlines triggered a $19 billion crypto liquidation, demonstrating that Bitcoin now exhibits behavior similar to traditional financial markets, with swings driven by global news. Analysts like Gautam Chhugani of Bernstein model an extended, flatter cycle through 2027, with a steady grind higher rather than explosive moves. The consensus is growing that Bitcoin's market structure is maturing, rewarding long-term discipline and dollar-cost averaging over short-term timing strategies.
