Bitcoin's aggregate open interest across futures markets has declined to its lowest level since 2022, according to data from CryptoQuant and derivatives exchanges like Binance and CME. This significant drop, which saw a 30% fall in Q4 2025 according to AInvest analysts, indicates a major deleveraging event where traders have closed leveraged positions, taken profits, or faced liquidations.
The decline has sparked debate around an unverified claim that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have a break-even price of $79,000. No primary entities or ETF issuers have confirmed this figure, leaving it as speculative market chatter. Analysts, including AristoChain from CryptoQuant, interpret the low open interest as a potential market reset. Historically, such levels have preceded periods of consolidation or price reversal after stabilization, echoing patterns seen after the 2021 cycle peak and the 2022 market crash involving failures like FTX.
The reduction in leveraged positions reduces systemic risk and the potential for cascading liquidations, leading to lower market volatility. This creates a more stable environment that could be conducive to future, sustainable price growth. The current phase is viewed as a digestion period where the market finds a new equilibrium, shifting focus from speculation to fundamental developments and long-term investment.
