Hedera (HBAR) price has confirmed a double-bottom reversal pattern, a classic technical signal indicating a potential end to its bearish phase and the beginning of a broader recovery. The cryptocurrency, which operates in the enterprise-focused distributed ledger and smart contract infrastructure sector, has seen its price retrace significantly from its February 2025 peak near $0.40 to trade around $0.11, marking a decline of roughly 70%.
The recent price action shows HBAR reclaiming key support levels, with the value area low now acting as bullish support. The primary upside technical focus has shifted toward the $0.14 high-timeframe resistance level. Analysts note that for the bullish scenario to fully materialize, volume behavior will be critical, with increasing bullish volume needed to confirm genuine participation and push through intermediate resistance levels like the Point of Control.
This technical development occurs against a backdrop of mixed fundamental factors. The price weakness throughout 2025 followed a broader slowdown across enterprise crypto adoption and lingering regulatory uncertainty. In December 2025, Hedera launched its Developer Playground initiative designed to make tokenization, DeFi tools, and AI-related applications easier to deploy on the network. Enterprise partnerships, including a collaboration with Accenture around public sector AI oversight, and council governance involving companies like Google and IBM, continue to reinforce Hedera's institutional credibility.
Regulatory uncertainty remains a significant pressure point. The SEC has delayed its decision on a proposed HBAR spot ETF tied to Grayscale until late 2026, mirroring delays across other layer-one assets. Furthermore, a U.S. Senate crypto bill scheduled for a January 15, 2026, vote did not clearly define DeFi frameworks, creating additional ambiguity that analysts see as a short-term drag on price momentum.
Despite these headwinds, institutional activity has persisted. Data shows a spot HBAR ETF managed by Canary Capital holding roughly 473 million HBAR (close to 1% of circulating supply), with net inflows of about $44 million recorded during Q4 2025. Large wallets also expanded positions in November 2025, adding close to 1 billion HBAR in a single month. Grayscale's inclusion of HBAR in its Smart Contract Fund further reinforces the view of long-term accumulation at lower price levels.
Analysts outline several price scenarios for HBAR looking toward 2027, ranging from a bearish decline toward $0.06 (a ~50% drop from current levels) under continued macro or regulatory pressure, to a recovery toward $0.22 (~100% increase), and a bullish case revisiting the $0.40 February 2025 high (~250% gain). The most optimistic scenario, assuming a broadly bullish crypto market and regulatory breakthroughs, could see HBAR revisit its previous all-time high near $0.57, representing an increase of roughly 418% from current $0.11 levels.
