Blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket is experiencing a significant surge in trading activity focused on political events in Iran, as widespread protests and international tensions fuel speculation about the potential downfall of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Current betting odds on the platform show a market reassessing near-term risks. As of January 9, 2026, only 18% of bettors believe Khamenei will no longer be Supreme Leader by the imminent deadline of January 31, 2026. However, confidence in his departure grows with more time: 29% anticipate his exit by March 31, 2026, and 45% predict it by June 30, 2026. A separate contract shows 56% odds of Khamenei leaving office by the end of 2026, indicating a sharp repricing in longer-dated markets.
Trading volume has exploded, with the specific contract asking if Khamenei will be removed by January 31 reaching over $5.5 million in volume in just four days, making it one of Polymarket's most active markets. Overall Iran-related betting volume hit $4.7 million in the same period. One prominent trader, identified as Chungguskhan, holds a large position of 254,762.6 "No" shares on this contract.
The platform is also hosting bets on related geopolitical events. A contract on a potential joint military engagement by Israel and the US shows 42% of bettors expecting such action by January 31, 2026. Another bet predicts a 28% chance that Iranian heir Reza Pahlavi will enter Iran.
The betting frenzy coincides with reports of escalating civil unrest. Polymarket itself shared a video on social media showing the first government building in Tehran set ablaze. Reports on social media suggest some Iranian leadership may have fled the country, and videos have emerged showing security forces firing on protesters. The situation is described as exceptionally fluid, with the potential to change within hours or days, contributing to the high volatility in the prediction markets.
