The U.S. financial markets are bracing for a volatile session on January 9, 2026, as two high-impact events converge: the release of delayed December jobs data and a potential Supreme Court ruling on the legality of former President Donald Trump's tariffs. This combination of economic and political risk is expected to define market sentiment for the coming months.
The labor market report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, marks a return to a normal data schedule after the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. Economists forecast a modest rebound with roughly 73,000 new jobs added in December and the unemployment rate edging down to 4.5% from November's 4.6%. This data is highly sensitive as it shapes expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026.
Simultaneously, the Supreme Court may issue a ruling on whether the Trump administration legally used emergency economic powers to impose tariffs. Prediction markets on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket indicate only a 25-27% chance the tariffs will be upheld, suggesting traders expect them to be struck down. The U.S. tariff system has grown immensely complex, with the official 2026 tariff book spanning over 4,500 pages—an 800-page increase since 2017—and businesses now navigating 17 different tariff measures compared to just three in 2017.
Market movements already reflect expectations of a ruling against the tariffs. Retail stocks like Home Depot and Costco have risen 5-6% in early 2026, and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF is up nearly 6%. Analysts note that a decision to scrap tariffs could lower input costs for consumer staples companies like Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola but might weaken onshoring efforts and create fiscal uncertainty, especially if large tariff refunds are mandated.
For cryptocurrency markets, the developments present a mixed picture. A weaker-than-expected jobs report could reinforce expectations for easier monetary policy, a historically supportive backdrop for risk assets like crypto. Conversely, heightened volatility in traditional equity markets might create short-term pressure. However, sustained policy uncertainty around trade and fiscal strain could ultimately strengthen crypto's appeal as an alternative store of value outside the traditional financial system.
