Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Global Director of Macro, has expressed significant skepticism regarding the widely discussed notion that Bitcoin's four-year market cycle has ended. In a statement that contrasts with more bullish institutional forecasts, Timmer cautioned that bear markets may still be a feature of Bitcoin's future.
Timmer directly challenged the argument made by many Bitcoin advocates that the halving cycle's impact has weakened and a new structural bull wave has begun. "I agree with the idea that the halving cycle's impact has weakened; however, I am skeptical of the claim that this automatically means the bear market is over," he stated. He noted that Bitcoin's current price action resembles the S-curve seen in early internet adoption more than a classic power law curve.
The Fidelity executive identified $65,000 as the current critical trend bottom for Bitcoin, a level that coincides with the cryptocurrency's previous all-time high. However, his longer-term power law trend analysis suggests a potential bottom around $45,000. Timmer proposed a scenario where, if Bitcoin enters a prolonged sideways consolidation over the next year, the power law trendline could rise to meet the $65,000 level, potentially offering a market "lifeline." He emphasized this outcome is uncertain.
This cautious stance places Fidelity at odds with several other major institutional players. Firms like VanEck, Bitwise, Grayscale, Bernstein, and Coinbase maintain a bullish 2026 outlook, with some predicting a new all-time high of $150,000. Bitwise and VanEck have explicitly stated they believe the four-year cycle has ended, particularly after Bitcoin closed 2025 in negative territory, breaking from historical patterns. They argue the sector will now move in sync with U.S. equities, potentially leading to a less pronounced or non-existent typical bear market.
Adding a data-driven perspective to the bearish argument, CryptoQuant's analysis indicates Bitcoin entered a bear market in early November 2025 after falling below its 1-year Moving Average. Founder Ki Young Ju pointed to slowing capital growth momentum, as measured by the Realized Cap indicator. A stagnation or decline in Realized Cap has historically signaled bear markets, such as those in 2018-2020 and 2022-2023. The November 2025 warning was the first such signal since 2023.
VanEck's Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, countered the bear market narrative by highlighting that the Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP) indicator, a key cycle top signal, was at 0.43—below the 0.70 level that has flagged past market tops. This, he argues, suggests the current cycle has not yet peaked and leaves room for an upside rally in 2026.
