Financial markets and prediction platforms are increasingly pointing to former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the likely nominee for the next chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve. This follows former President Donald Trump's recent statement that he has already selected an ideal successor for current Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, but has chosen not to disclose the individual's identity publicly yet.
According to data from the prediction market platform Polymarket, Warsh currently holds a 42% probability of being selected, making him the clear frontrunner. He is closely followed by Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, with a 37% probability. Other names in the mix, such as Fed Governor Christopher Waller and asset manager Rick Rieder, trail significantly behind. Trump later signaled he might interview Rieder, adding another layer of uncertainty to the race.
Analysts note that Warsh, who served on the Federal Reserve Board from 2006 to 2011, was nearly selected for the role during Trump's first term. His policy perspective is frequently described as favoring lower interest rates, which aligns with views supportive of easier financial conditions. Hassett is also seen as favoring rate reductions, though with a greater focus on supporting economic growth.
The speculation has drawn attention from crypto and equity traders, as the future direction of monetary policy under a new Fed chair could significantly influence borrowing costs, liquidity, and overall risk sentiment in financial markets. Senator Elizabeth Warren has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, warning that close political alignment could affect neutral decision-making.
