XRP is closing out April at $1.37, having surrendered the tentative momentum built through the middle of the month. A promising RSI setup that had buyers eyeing a potential channel breakout less than a week ago has fully unwound, with the price reversing from below the upper channel boundary and drifting back toward the lower end of its range as May approaches. The rejection was clean and unambiguous, resetting the technical picture back to square one.
On the XRP/USDT pair, XRP failed to post a sustained close above the channel ceiling and the 100-day moving average, sliding from the $1.50 area back to $1.37. The RSI has faded to below 50, indicating neutral territory. Key resistance levels remain the 100-day MA at ~$1.50 and the 200-day MA converging with the $1.80 supply zone. On the support side, the February wick low at $1.20 remains the hard floor. A close below this level would suggest XRP is tracking toward the lower channel boundary rather than building for another breakout attempt, putting the critical $1 support zone back into focus.
Against Bitcoin, the picture has continued to deteriorate. XRP/BTC has slipped to 1,800 sats, sitting directly on horizontal support and slightly above the descending channel’s lower boundary at 1,600 sats. The RSI on this pair has weakened below 40, with the softest reading in several weeks. The proximity to the lower channel boundary makes the next few daily closes significant. A breach of the 1,800 sats support level on a closing basis would represent a full channel breakdown, opening the path toward the lower trendline and potentially the 1,500 sats support zone if selling pressure accelerates.
Despite the bearish technicals, XRP spot ETFs have crossed $1.30 billion in cumulative inflows, with daily inflows staying positive through most of April. Polymarket gives 3% odds of XRP hitting an all-time high by June, 12% by September, and 21% by December 2026. XRP is trading at $1.3729, up 0.31%, inside a rising channel with the SAR at $1.4734 as the key resistance to reclaim in May.
