Cryptocurrency analytics firm Alphractal has published a significant report highlighting a rare pattern in Bitcoin's (BTC) annual performance metric, suggesting the market is at a critical inflection point. According to the analysis, Bitcoin's 1-year percentage change currently stands at approximately -4.5%. The firm notes that a price increase of just 4.5–5% is needed to push this key indicator back into positive territory.
Historically, periods where this annual performance metric is negative have aligned with bear markets. However, Alphractal points to a major exception in July 2020, when the metric briefly turned negative before a powerful bull market commenced, ultimately driving Bitcoin from around $3,782 to an all-time high of $64,850—a gain of over 1,600%. The current setup is noted to be "quite similar" to that 2020 period.
The report emphasizes that if Bitcoin achieves the necessary ~5% gain, it would mark only the second time in its history that such a rare pattern has emerged, potentially paving the way for a new trend reversal and a major upward swing. Conversely, if the metric remains negative, it would present a picture consistent with previous bear market cycles.
Technical analysis adds another layer to this critical juncture. The two-year simple moving average (SMA), a major indicator of downside risk, sits around $84,500. Analyst Joao Wedson warned that losing this level significantly increases the probability of capitulation. Liquidity Heatmap data shows substantial liquidity clusters above ($86,817 to $90,000) and below ($81,609 to $81,733) the current price of $92,231, which will likely influence Bitcoin's next decisive move.
Despite the uncertainty, market sentiment remains strongly bullish. Community sentiment indicators show around 80% of 5.9 million voters are backing a bullish scenario. This optimism is echoed by industry figures like Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ), who recently posted on X speculating, "Super Cycle incoming," citing positive U.S. regulatory developments as a catalyst.
