Solana's price action is sending mixed signals as technical analysis suggests a potential final downside test before a sustainable bullish move, while on-chain data reveals a concerning decline in network adoption. Crypto analyst More Crypto Online explained that Solana's chart structure aligns with a C-wave decline within a broader wave IV correction, indicating the correction may not be finished. The analyst noted that, from a short-term perspective, Solana could drift lower into the $81 to $90 region.
"Within the orange scenario, price action continues to align with a C-wave decline in a broader wave IV correction, keeping the corrective outlook valid as long as the structure remains non-impulsive," the analyst stated. An alternative scenario suggests the current pullback could be an A-wave, leaving room for another low before recovery. The absence of clear impulsive upside movement keeps downside scenarios in play, with the focus remaining on the risk of one more corrective low.
Despite this, some bullish factors persist. AltCoin Việt Nam highlighted a strong and reassuring reaction around the 50% Fibonacci level, with price rebounding in a controlled manner, suggesting buyer influence remains. Furthermore, the ongoing spot Solana ETF narrative is supporting steady capital accumulation rather than FOMO-driven inflows, which often reflects longer-term positioning.
However, this technical outlook is challenged by weak fundamental adoption. On-chain analytics firm Santiment reported that Solana's Network Growth indicator has continued to fall recently, dropping from a high of 30.2 million in November 2024 to just 7.3 million today. This metric measures the weekly total number of new addresses making their first transaction. The decline suggests the recent price recovery to $144 has been unable to attract fresh investors, a factor historically needed for sustainable rallies.
"Historically, rallies have generally needed the incoming of new investors to be sustainable, as it’s the increased trading activity that provides them with the fuel to go on," Santiment noted, highlighting a similar pattern from a 2025 rally that eventually lost momentum. For SOL's recovery to last, a reversal in this adoption trend may be necessary. At the time of reporting, Solana's price had retraced to $139 after a brief recovery.
