This week, cryptocurrency markets are bracing for significant volatility driven by a confluence of key U.S. macroeconomic data releases, Federal Reserve policy signals, and substantial token unlocks. The market's direction is expected to hinge on these factors, linking traditional economic indicators with crypto-specific supply dynamics.
The primary focus is on U.S. inflation and spending data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday, January 13, is the most critical event, providing the first clear inflation update in months. Markets anticipate that cooling inflation could weaken the U.S. dollar and boost risk assets like Bitcoin, while hotter-than-expected data may apply short-term pressure. This will be followed on Wednesday by Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) data, alongside the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which offers a regional economic snapshot.
Federal Reserve liquidity measures are also in focus. The central bank's $40 billion Treasury purchase program is ending on Wednesday, a shift that reduces liquidity in the financial system and could impact risk assets like Bitcoin. Furthermore, investor sentiment remains sensitive to the broader policy outlook from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Simultaneously, a major token unlock is poised to impact altcoin markets. Nathan Allman, Founder of Ondo Finance, stated that 1.9 billion ONDO tokens, valued at over $840 million, are scheduled for release on January 19. Such large unlocks can create significant supply-side pressure, affecting liquidity and price dynamics for the involved asset and broader market sentiment.
Additional events include a US Supreme Court ruling on Trump-era tariffs and the potential finalization of a proposed 10% credit card interest rate cap, which analysts suggest could drive consumer interest toward alternative assets like Bitcoin.
For Bitcoin specifically, price action is testing key resistance near $92,700. A breakout could signal further upside, while rejection might lead to a test of support at $90,000 or even $87,500. On-chain data suggests accumulation may be bottoming, and Bitcoin is trading below estimated miner production costs—a historically bullish signal.
