JPMorgan Q4 Earnings: Trading Revenue Soars, Investment Banking Fees Disappoint

2 hour ago 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • Mixed bank earnings signal caution for crypto as traditional finance faces regulatory headwinds.
  • Strong trading revenue amid volatility could indicate capital rotation into risk assets like Bitcoin.
  • Watch for correlation between bank stock weakness and crypto strength as investors seek alternatives.

JPMorgan Chase kicked off the U.S. banking earnings season with a mixed fourth-quarter report for 2025. While the bank's trading division delivered a standout performance, its investment banking fees unexpectedly declined, missing the bank's own guidance and Wall Street forecasts.

The largest U.S. bank reported adjusted earnings of $5.23 per share, beating analyst expectations of $5.00. However, overall profit fell 7% to $13.03 billion, or $4.63 per share, reflecting a $2.2 billion reserve linked to its takeover of the Apple Card loan portfolio from Goldman Sachs. Revenue increased 7% to $46.77 billion.

Investment banking revenue dropped 5% year-over-year to $2.35 billion, a notable miss after the bank had signaled in December it expected a "low single digits" percentage gain. The decline was primarily driven by weaker-than-expected debt underwriting, where fees fell 2% against analyst expectations for a 19% increase.

In contrast, the trading business was a major bright spot. Total trading revenue reached $8.24 billion, topping even the highest analyst estimate. This was fueled by a 40% surge in equity trading revenue and a 7% rise in fixed income trading, benefiting from volatile markets and uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy.

Elsewhere, the bank showed strength in its core lending operations. Net interest income rose 7% to $25.1 billion, while loans grew 4% from the prior quarter. JPMorgan projected it expects to generate about $103 billion in net interest income in 2026.

Despite the earnings beat, JPMorgan's stock traded down more than 3% during the session, as investors focused on the investment banking shortfall and rising regulatory uncertainty. Proposed plans by the Trump administration to cap credit card interest rates at 10% have raised concerns across Wall Street about potential impacts on consumer credit access and bank profitability.

The bank's results set the tone for a wave of earnings from other major lenders, including Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, slated to report in the following days.

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