Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin's price will go parabolic, drawing parallels to gold's historic 2025 rally. Hougan's analysis, shared on social media on January 13, 2026, hinges on the sustained institutional demand from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasuries, which he believes will eventually exhaust the available supply of sellers.
Hougan referenced gold's price action as a key precedent. He noted that after central banks began significantly increasing gold purchases in 2022—roughly doubling annual purchases from 500 tonnes to 1,000 tonnes—the metal's price remained relatively stagnant for about three years. Gold gained only 2% in 2022, 13% in 2023, and 27% in 2024 before experiencing a massive 65% surge in 2025. Hougan attributes this delayed parabolic move to the market's initial capacity to absorb demand before sellers were exhausted.
Applying this logic to Bitcoin, Hougan stated, "Bitcoin's price will go parabolic if ETF demand persists long-term." He highlighted that since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, these funds have consistently purchased more than 100% of all newly mined Bitcoin. As of January 13, 2026, these ETFs have accumulated a staggering $56.52 billion in cumulative net inflows. Despite this massive demand, Bitcoin has not yet surged because long-term holders have been willing to sell into it. Hougan believes this selling pressure is finite.
This thesis is bolstered by new data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. Corporate Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) added a net 260,000 Bitcoin to their balance sheets over the past six months, far outpacing the estimated 82,000 coins mined in the same period. This represents a 30% increase, bringing total corporate holdings to approximately 1.11 million BTC, worth around $105 billion at current prices.
MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, dominates this corporate holdings space, controlling 687,410 BTC (60% of the total), valued at roughly $65.5 billion. The company recently resumed aggressive buying, acquiring 13,627 BTC between January 5 and 11, 2026—its largest purchase since July 2025.
While spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of almost $22 billion in 2025, led by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the start of 2026 has been more mixed. Current data shows $1.9 billion in inflows against $1.38 billion in outflows, resulting in a net aggregate inflow of just over $500 million. Hougan remains confident that if the long-term ETF demand trend continues, it will create an unprecedented supply-demand dynamic that propels Bitcoin's price upward.
