Nearly $2.84 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts are set to expire on January 16, 2026, creating a focal point for derivatives markets as cryptocurrency prices test the conviction behind a recent rally. According to data from Deribit, Bitcoin options account for approximately $2.4 billion of the total notional value, with Ethereum contributing around $437 million.
Bitcoin is trading near $95,310, notably above its max pain level of $92,000—the price at which the maximum number of options contracts would expire worthless. This positioning raises the probability of heightened volatility as traders close, roll, or hedge their positions. Despite Bitcoin's decisive break above a key technical resistance level, options data suggests continued caution. The put-to-call ratio for Bitcoin stands at 1.26, indicating that downside protection (puts) still outweighs bullish leverage (calls).
Ethereum presents a more balanced picture, trading around $3,295, only marginally above its $3,200 max pain level. Its put-to-call ratio is near-neutral at 1.03, reflecting a market that is hedged but undecided, consistent with ETH's ongoing struggle to break cleanly above the $3,400 resistance zone.
Analysts from Greeks.live highlighted a sharp divergence in institutional activity between the two assets. On January 14, Bitcoin block trades reached $1.7 billion, accounting for over 40% of its daily volume, while Ethereum block trades totaled just $130 million, or about 20% of its volume. "The market is clearly more concentrated on Bitcoin's bullish momentum," the analysts noted.
However, the broader derivatives backdrop remains unconvincing. Greeks.live reported that futures volume did not expand meaningfully alongside the price surge, and implied volatility for major expiries did not rebound substantially. "The derivatives market has not yet entered a structurally bullish phase," they stated, characterizing the current setup as "more like a reactive response to the sudden surge."
As this large options expiry clears, spot prices could gravitate toward their max pain levels, and investors are advised to brace for possible short-term volatility before markets potentially cool down as traders adjust to the new environment.
