After a period of consolidation, the price of Aave (AAVE) has been holding firm near the $170 level, refusing to break lower despite broader market uncertainty. The altcoin recently attempted a breakout but was rejected at $180, retracing to a current trading price around $173, down 2.32% on daily charts.
On-chain data reveals a significant shift in whale behavior, signaling a potential market inflection point. According to monitors like Onchain Lens, a whale with the address label "0xE9D" purchased 11,089 AAVE, valued at approximately $1.9 million, after being dormant for a month. This accumulation brings the whale's total holdings to 355,093 AAVE, worth about $59.15 million, alongside $30 million in debt. This move is notable as data from CryptoQuant showed zero large whale orders for AAVE since the start of 2026, indicating a prior significant scale-back from large entities.
However, the whale activity sends mixed signals. While one entity is accumulating, data from The Data Nerd shows that 21Shares-linked wallets have transferred approximately 35,700 AAVE (worth around $5.7 million) to exchanges and market makers like Flow Traders over the past three weeks. This clash between accumulation and distribution has pushed AAVE into a tightening price range.
Market demand indicators are showing signs of recovery. Buyer's vs. Seller's Strength indicators on TradingView showed buyers overwhelming sellers, with buyer strength rising to 80.82 against seller strength of 19.18. Furthermore, AAVE's Spot Taker CVD has remained positive throughout the past week, suggesting buyers have dominated the market—a clear sign of rising demand.
Technically, AAVE is at a critical juncture. It has shown bullish momentum by jumping above its short-term moving average (EMA 20) at $168 and is now testing the EMA 50 around $174. A flip of this level could validate upward momentum. The price has repeatedly defended the $165 support zone, which, along with $155, forms a strong demand base. Analysts suggest that if the newfound demand, particularly from whales, holds, AAVE could target a breakout above $184 toward the $194-$210 zone. Conversely, if bears retake control, the altcoin could seek support again at $168.
The current period of hesitation and tight range movement is seen not as a sign of weakness but of positioning, often preceding sharp market moves. The balance between whale accumulation and distribution, coupled with recovering broader demand, leaves the market awaiting a decisive next move.
