Crypto analyst Crypto Patel has outlined a scenario for a significant altcoin season in 2026, potentially surpassing the cycles of 2017 and 2021. His analysis hinges on the OTHERS/BTC ratio, which tracks the performance of altcoins against Bitcoin. This ratio is currently testing a long-term support zone within a broad rising channel—a level that has historically marked major turning points leading to altcoin outperformance.
The chart pattern shows that after the 2021 peak, the ratio has been in a prolonged downtrend, slowly grinding back to this critical channel support. Patel compares this to cycle lows seen in 2019 and 2020, framing the current zone as a potential bottom for 2025. He argues that extended periods in support allow the market to reset, setting the stage for a powerful momentum shift.
Patel's upside target is the upper boundary of the channel, referencing past breakouts of approximately 423% in 2017 and 503% in 2021. For a genuine breakout to occur, the ratio must hold this support, reclaim previous resistance levels, and begin making higher highs. A key signal would be a strong move above the channel support coupled with a break of the long-term downtrend line.
This analysis coincides with a measurable shift in market data. CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index has risen to 27, its highest level in recent weeks. This index measures the percentage of top 100 cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins) outperforming Bitcoin over a 90-day period. While a value of 27 is far from the 75+ threshold indicating a full "altcoin season," the upward movement suggests early signs of capital rotation away from Bitcoin dominance.
Market analysts note the index is a lagging indicator and emphasize the need for confirmation from other metrics like on-chain activity, Bitcoin dominance charts, and network growth for major altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano. The current environment suggests a cautious testing of altcoin exposure, with the potential for a broader rally if the index sustains its climb above 25 and challenges higher levels.
