Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating just below a major resistance cluster around $95,000 following a strong recovery from its December lows near $80,000. The price action shows a clear sequence of higher lows, while on-chain data indicates a significant reset in the percentage of supply in profit, which has now begun to recover.
Technically, the market is at a critical decision zone. A sustained breakout above the current ceiling could open the door to a new leg higher, potentially targeting the $100,000 region. Conversely, a rejection here could trigger a corrective phase back toward established support levels, with $90,000 acting as a key short-term support layer. The daily chart shows BTC trading around the $95,000 resistance band, which coincides with the 100-day moving average and has acted as a price cap since November.
On-chain analysis reveals a crucial shift in holder behavior. According to data from CryptoQuant and Checkonchain, Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) have exited an "extreme discomfort zone." The cohort's average unrealized losses have dropped from over 10% to approximately 6.4%, significantly reducing the likelihood of panic-driven selling. The Short-Term Holder Sell-Side Risk indicator has plunged to 0.000875, approaching historical lows, suggesting that most forced selling from this group has already occurred.
The Supply in Profit (%) metric provides a constructive cyclical signal. Despite the current price being above $90,000, this metric recently dropped to levels last seen when BTC was below $30,000 earlier in the cycle. This deep reset indicates a large portion of coins changed hands during the recent correction, flushing out weaker hands. The metric is now recovering toward the mid-70% range, a backdrop that has historically preceded medium-term advances.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $95,147, testing the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $95,942. A sustained flip above this level could confirm bullish control and open a path toward the 200-day EMA at $99,423. Momentum indicators like the Chande Momentum Oscillator have strengthened, climbing from 16 to 52.
