XRP's price action is at a critical juncture, trading just above the key $2.00 support level. Technical analysis from analyst CasiTrades suggests a complex corrective structure is unfolding, with a potential final bullish Wave C push towards the $2.26 to $2.28 resistance zone expected before a possible larger downturn. This move is projected to follow a recent deeper-than-expected B wave pullback to the $2.09 Fibonacci retracement level.
However, a decisive rejection in the $2.26-$2.28 band could trigger a sustained bearish Wave 3 move, with macro support around $1.65 coming back into focus. The formation of the C subwaves and price reaction at resistance will be critical for confirming the broader outlook.
Fundamental flows add another layer to the analysis. U.S. spot XRP ETFs now hold approximately $1.56 billion in assets, with average daily inflows near $10.6 million helping to absorb supply. This is counterbalanced by Ripple's ongoing monthly sales of roughly $200 million worth of XRP to fund operations. For a sustained uptrend, ETF inflows must continue outpacing these sales.
On-chain data reveals large holders accumulated over 50 million XRP last week near $2.00, and daily net exchange outflows of around $13.1 million have reduced immediate sell pressure. However, derivatives positioning on Binance shows a long/short ratio near 3.0, indicating a heavily bullish-leaning market that raises the risk of sharp pullbacks if support fails.
Chart analysis confirms a range-bound market between firm support at $2.00 and resistance at $2.20, with $2.30 as a secondary supply zone. Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD suggest consolidation and indecision. The near-term bias remains neutral to slightly bullish as long as $2.00 holds, with a break above $2.20 potentially opening the door to $2.30. A failure of the $2.00 support could quickly see price test the next level near $1.80.
