According to a stark analysis from Mike McGlone, Bloomberg's senior commodity strategist, Bitcoin's decade-long rally may be fading, with the cryptocurrency at risk of a severe devaluation against gold. The warning centers on the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio (XBT/XAU), which has recently fallen to 20.18—a level nearly identical to where it stood five years ago.
This "5-Year Curse" signals a potential full mean reversion. After peaking at a ratio of 40 in late 2024, the benchmark has already been cut in half. McGlone's core thesis is that Bitcoin's "massive overperformance after 2020" was driven by liquidity-fueled hype, and that excess is now unwinding. He warns the next likely move is a return to the ratio of 10, last seen during crypto's deepest consolidation phase, which would equate to another 50% drop for Bitcoin relative to gold.
The analysis extends beyond the gold comparison. McGlone notes that Bitcoin's yearly chart shows a failure to break the $100,000 resistance level in 2025, a rollover below the 200-day moving average, and only a weak bounce in early 2026. He views this as a setup for a significant price retracement, with $50,000 as a baseline and a potential overshoot down to $10,000, especially if broader risk assets deflate in a post-inflation environment.
A key trigger for further decline could come from equities. Bitcoin's historical alpha has correlated with a rising S&P 500 and suppressed market volatility. However, the volatility index has remained persistently low since late 2022. McGlone cautions that "an increase in equity risk could cause a major decline in the beta of speculative cryptocurrencies." The ultimate takeaway is that Bitcoin's chart against gold is no longer bullish but symmetrical, suggesting significant downside risk before stability returns.
