The cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin (BTC), experienced sharp declines following geopolitical tensions sparked by former US President Donald Trump's threat of tariffs against the EU and NATO countries. This event triggered a sell-off, pushing Bitcoin to lows around $92,000.
Amidst the volatility, two prominent analytical firms have issued starkly contrasting forecasts for Bitcoin's trajectory in 2026. Asia-based Web3 research company Tiger Research has published an optimistic outlook in its latest report. Utilizing its proprietary Tiger Valuation Methodology (TVM), which blends on-chain data, network activity, and long-term adoption metrics, the firm established a neutral/base price of $145,000 for BTC.
Analysts then applied a 25% macroeconomic bullish overlay, reflecting anticipated positive changes in the global financial environment such as potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and an increasing global M2 money supply. This calculation resulted in a striking first-quarter price target of $185,500 for Bitcoin. The report acknowledged that spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have weakened short-term momentum and identified key technical levels, with support at $84,000 and resistance at $98,000. The path to their target requires a convincing break above this $98,000 resistance.
In stark contrast, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone reiterated a bearish warning. McGlone, who has generally predicted a decline for BTC in 2025, stated on LinkedIn that if Bitcoin fails to rise and sustain above the $100,000 level, it could signal the end of the bull cycle. He warned of a potential "normal pullback" towards $10,000. McGlone interpreted the price drop below the 200-day moving average and the subsequent rebound in early 2026 not as the start of a new uptrend, but as a phase of showing strength within a larger corrective pattern. He suggested a correction to $50,000 this year would be a typical pullback.
McGlone concluded that a broader stock market recovery is necessary for Bitcoin to gain further value and posited that precious metals, rather than cryptocurrencies, may form a relative peak in 2026, citing last year's excessive surge in crypto assets.
