U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs See $395 Million Outflow Amid Geopolitical Tensions

yesterday / 09:42 17 sources negative

Key takeaways:

  • Geopolitical tensions are now directly impacting crypto ETF flows, suggesting Bitcoin's correlation with macro uncertainty is strengthening.
  • BlackRock's IBIT inflows amid broad outflows indicate institutional preference for established managers during market stress.
  • Watch for sustained outflows in Solana ETFs as a potential early signal of altcoin rotation into safer assets.

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced a significant reversal on Friday, January 16, 2026, recording one of their largest single-day capital exits in recent weeks. Investors pulled approximately 1,106 BTC from these funds, resulting in net outflows of $394.68 million and wiping out nearly $395 million in value. This sharp withdrawal ended a four-day inflow streak that had seen over $1.8 billion enter the products.

The outflows were led by Fidelity's FBTC, which reported $205.22 million in negative flows. Grayscale's GBTC, Bitwise's BITB, and Ark & 21Shares' ARKB also posted sizable net outflows. In contrast, BlackRock's IBIT was a notable exception, recording net inflows of $15 million.

The sudden shift in institutional positioning came amid growing market uncertainty. Analysts pointed to a combination of factors, including mixed macroeconomic signals, profit-taking after Bitcoin struggled to regain recent highs near $95,800, and caution ahead of upcoming economic data releases. The outflows preceded a weekend market slump triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions. Reports emerged of a potential trade war between the U.S. and the EU after former President Donald Trump threatened to escalate tariffs on imports from eight NATO allies unless Denmark agreed to sell Greenland. EU officials responded by preparing retaliatory measures.

This geopolitical news "added a layer of uncertainty that markets were in no shape to absorb," according to Crypto Analyst Rachael Lucas. She noted that market sentiment had already been deteriorating after the highly anticipated markup of a major U.S. crypto market structure bill was postponed. The initial headlines pushed Bitcoin's price down from around $95,000 to $92,500 on Saturday, with losses extending to $90,979 by Monday.

Other cryptocurrency ETFs showed subdued activity. Ethereum ETFs reported a modest net inflow of $4.6 million, while spot XRP funds saw $1.1 million in inflows. Solana ETFs reported net outflows of $2.2 million, marking their first daily outflow since December 3.

Despite the sharp one-day exit, analysts emphasize that the long-term case for spot Bitcoin ETFs remains intact. These products continue to attract institutional investors seeking regulated exposure, and one volatile session does not negate months of structural growth. Min Jung, an associate researcher at Presto Research, cautioned that "with no concrete details yet around trade policy, it's still too early to draw firm conclusions," and that this uncertainty is likely to keep crypto markets volatile in the near term.

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