Bitcoin (BTC) has underperformed against gold for over six months, with the BTC/XAU pair falling to a value equivalent to less than 20 ounces of gold and becoming stuck in a descending channel. However, a key technical indicator is flashing a historically bullish signal. Popular cryptocurrency analyst Michael Van de Poppe highlighted that Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) against gold has dropped to 30, marking only the fourth such occurrence in BTC's history.
This RSI level of 30 has previously coincided with major market bottoms. The prior three instances were the lows of the 2015, 2018, and 2022 bear markets, each followed by significant recoveries. Poppe interprets this as a strong signal that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued relative to gold, suggesting a potential buying opportunity.
Separate analysis points to a broader market cycle. A forecast suggests that if historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin could be headed toward $29,000 by October 2026. This projection is based on past cycles where major tops occurred every four years (2017, 2021, 2025), with subsequent declines lasting roughly a year and averaging an 80% drop. The current bear phase is noted to have started in October 2025.
Macro perspectives indicate a shifting landscape. The S&P 500 measured in gold is approaching a historic pivot level, a pattern that preceded major market stress in 1973 and 2008. Meanwhile, the Beta/Gold ratio is rolling over as volatility rises, and the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is declining, often seen as a leading risk-off signal.
Despite the current bearish sentiment, 2025 was highlighted as a transformative year where Bitcoin evolved into a true macro asset, with over 1.1 million BTC held by institutions and more than $21 billion flowing into spot ETFs. The outlook for 2026 is framed as adoption-driven, moving beyond hype toward real infrastructure.
