Galaxy Head of Research Alex Thorn has highlighted a significant technical development that went largely unnoticed at the start of 2026: a "death cross" on the ETH/BTC daily chart. This bearish signal occurred when the 50-day moving average (MA) for the ETH/BTC pair dropped below its 200-day MA. Thorn noted this event was likely overlooked due to the initial optimism in the crypto market at the beginning of the year.
The death cross is traditionally interpreted as a negative indicator, suggesting the potential for prolonged underperformance of Ethereum and, by extension, other altcoins relative to Bitcoin. Historically, altcoin market outperformance has often coincided with a rising ETH/BTC ratio, as traders become more willing to take on risk when Ethereum is leading.
This technical warning aligns with recent price action. At the time of reporting, Ethereum was down 6.46% over 24 hours to $3,104, underperforming Bitcoin, which was down 3.12% to $89,991. The sell-off intensified market-wide liquidations, with the total crypto market seeing $573 million in liquidations. Notably, Ethereum accounted for $240 million of this figure, surpassing Bitcoin's $180 million in 24-hour liquidations.
However, a contradictory signal is emerging from Ethereum's derivatives market. Data from CryptoQuant reveals a potential structural shift. After nearly three years of persistent sell-side dominance, ETH's Net Taker Volume has turned positive, registering roughly $390 million in buy-side imbalance since January 6, 2026. This marks the strongest buy-side dominance since January 2023.
The Net Taker Volume metric tracks whether traders are aggressively buying at market prices or selling into bids. A positive reading indicates conviction among leveraged participants positioning for a longer-term trend. Historically, such strong positive flips have aligned with market bottoms or the early stages of uptrends.
Despite this bullish derivatives signal, short-term pressure remains. The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) was negative at -3,676 ETH on January 19, indicating ongoing selling pressure. Technically, ETH has reverted to its five-month point of control between $3,050 and $3,140. Analysts note the broader uptrend remains intact as long as daily closes hold above the crucial $3,000 support level. A break below this point would signal a more bearish structural shift.
Hyblock data shows significant liquidity clusters, with roughly $540 million in net long positions concentrated near $3,100 and another $500 million in liquidity below $3,000, suggesting the price may continue to fluctuate within this range as the market rebalances.
