Portuguese and Hungarian authorities have moved to block access to the crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket, citing illegal gambling operations and concerns over suspicious betting activity surrounding political events.
In Portugal, the Gambling Regulation and Inspection Service (SRIJ) confirmed that Polymarket operates illegally, as betting on political outcomes is prohibited. The regulator formally notified the platform on Friday, January 16, 2026, giving it 48 hours to cease activities. As of Monday, January 19, the platform remained accessible, prompting the SRIJ to prepare requests for internet service providers to block it. The crackdown followed unusually large betting volumes of over €4 million placed on the Portuguese presidential race just before polls closed. Total volume on the main market exceeded $120 million. Odds shifted sharply in favor of candidate António José Seguro, with his victory probability surging from around 60% to over 90% ahead of official projections, fueling speculation about early access to exit poll data.
In Hungary, the regulatory authority Szabályozott Tevékenységek Felügyeleti Hatósága has temporarily blocked access to Polymarket's domain and subdomains, citing "forbidden organization of gambling activities." The restriction will remain until the authority completes its review. Users with Hungarian IP addresses now see a regulator warning message.
These actions are part of a broader European regulatory clampdown. Ukraine blocked Polymarket on January 13, 2026, classifying it as unlicensed gambling. Previously, France, Belgium, Poland, Singapore, and Switzerland have also restricted or blocked the platform for non-compliance with national gambling laws. Polymarket is already geoblocked in 33 countries.
The platform faces additional scrutiny over potential insider trading. On January 3, 2026, a user placed a $32 bet on a contract predicting the removal of Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro just hours before U.S. forces captured him, netting a $400,000 profit. This incident has prompted U.S. lawmakers to propose legislation restricting political prediction market trading by government officials.
Despite the regulatory pressure, the prediction market sector is booming. Trading volume reached a record $701.7 million on January 12, 2026, with competitor Kalshi accounting for about two-thirds of that activity.
