Cathie Wood's investment firm Ark Invest has released a highly bullish long-term forecast for the cryptocurrency market, projecting that Bitcoin's market capitalization will surge to approximately $16 trillion by 2030. This would imply a Bitcoin price of roughly $761,900 per BTC, assuming the full fixed supply of 21 million coins, representing a staggering 765% increase from current prices near $88,000.
In its "Big Ideas 2026" report published this week, Ark positions Bitcoin as the maturing leader of a new institutional asset class. The firm sees Bitcoin primarily as a digital store of value or "digital gold," benefiting from several key trends: rising institutional participation, increased adoption of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), growing corporate treasury exposure, and declining volatility. Ark's data reveals that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and public companies now collectively hold about 12% of Bitcoin's total supply.
The report provides detailed figures on institutional accumulation. In 2025, Bitcoin ETF balances grew 19.7%, from roughly 1.12 million BTC to about 1.29 million BTC. Simultaneously, public company Bitcoin holdings rose 73%, from around 598,000 BTC to approximately 1.09 million BTC. Consequently, the combined share of Bitcoin outstanding held by ETFs and public companies increased from 8.7% to 12%.
"Based on Ark's forecast, bitcoin is likely to dominate the market cap for cryptocurrencies, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~63% during the next five years, from nearly ~$2 trillion to ~$16 trillion by 2030," the firm stated.
Ark's outlook for 2030 has remained "fairly stable" despite adjustments to two underlying assumptions. The firm increased its digital gold total addressable market by 37% following gold's 64.5% market cap rise in 2025. However, it sharply reduced expectations for Bitcoin's role as an emerging-market safe haven due to the rapid adoption of stablecoins in developing economies. This follows a revision in November where Ark trimmed its Bitcoin bull-case forecast by $300,000, citing stablecoins taking over part of the role it once expected Bitcoin to play.
Beyond Bitcoin, Ark envisions the total cryptocurrency market capitalization reaching roughly $28 trillion by 2030. The firm forecasts that smart contract networks could collectively reach a market cap of ~$6 trillion by 2030, growing at a 54% annual rate, supported by onchain financial activity, tokenized securities, and decentralized applications. "Two to three Layer 1 smart contract platforms should take the lion’s share of the market," Ark noted, adding they would garner more market cap from their monetary premium than from discounted cash flows.
