ARK Invest analyst David Puell has released a new assessment of Bitcoin's market trajectory, arguing the cryptocurrency has entered a more mature, institutionalized phase. Puell stated that the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 and the rapid adoption of digital asset treasury strategies have been pivotal. He noted that ETFs and corporate treasuries now hold approximately 12% of the total Bitcoin supply, a figure that has significantly exceeded market expectations and established structural demand as a key price driver throughout 2025.
According to Puell, this trend is likely to extend into 2026, with the market characterized by lower volatility and narrower pullbacks as institutional entities accumulate Bitcoin faster than anticipated. This evolution means the primary question for investors is no longer about belief in Bitcoin, but about the level of exposure desired and the investment vehicles used to achieve it.
ARK Invest maintains its long-term valuation framework, projecting a Bitcoin price of approximately $300,000 in a bearish scenario, $710,000 in a base scenario, and $1.5 million in a bullish scenario by 2030. Puell attributes this potential to the "digital gold" narrative and increasing institutional adoption.
This analysis coincides with a notable price rally in early 2026. By mid-January, Bitcoin's price rose about 12%, surpassing the $95,000 resistance level. This momentum is largely attributed to strong institutional demand, evidenced by spot Bitcoin ETFs recording their largest weekly inflows since early October at $1.8 billion. MicroStrategy's continued aggressive accumulation, bringing its total holdings close to 687,410 BTC, further reinforces this institutional conviction.
However, the rally faces headwinds from regulatory uncertainty. Initial optimism from a draft of the Clarity Act was tempered after analysis sparked opposition, leading the Senate to delay the bill's markup. This delay has created mixed market sentiment, reminding traders that regulatory clarity remains a crucial factor for unlocking further institutional flows. On-chain metrics, such as a shift in the 90-day Spot Taker Cumulative Volume Delta toward buy-side dominance, suggest improving supply-demand dynamics. Technically, Bitcoin now faces resistance at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average; a breakout could target the $108,000 level.
