Bitcoin is flashing early bear market signals as key on-chain profitability metrics have turned negative for the first time since October 2023. According to data from analytics firm CryptoQuant, Bitcoin holders have begun realizing net losses, with the net realized profit and loss metric dropping to 69,000 BTC over the past four weeks. This shift marks a significant change from the prolonged period of gains and suggests a potential downturn in market structure.
The price of Bitcoin has fallen below the $90,000 level, breaking key support and trading beneath the 75th percentile cost basis of its circulating supply, located near $92,940. This indicates rising distribution pressure among holders. Analysts are now focusing on major support zones between $80,000 and $84,000, where approximately 941,651 BTC were acquired over the last six months, representing a critical area for price stability.
Further bearish signals include a 9% decline from Bitcoin's 2026 high near $97,930 and a bearish MACD crossover on higher time frame charts, which historically has preceded significant drawdowns. Some forecasts suggest Bitcoin could test lows below $58,000 if sustained selling pressure continues. The market is also witnessing weakening demand, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing $708 million in outflows, while increased exchange inflows hint at growing selling pressure.
Market commentators note that declining peaks in realized profits since March 2024 point to slowing price momentum as the prior bull cycle fades. The behavior of long-term holders, who are showing trading reluctance, is affecting market liquidity. Experts suggest that the current on-chain profit behavior aligns with patterns seen in the transition from the 2021 bull market to the 2022 bear market.
