Bitcoin's price stagnation over the past year is being attributed by prominent analysts to growing institutional concerns over the long-term cryptographic security threat posed by quantum computing. Despite breaking into new territory in 2024, BTC's momentum stalled, diverging from other climbing risk assets.
Analyst Ran Neuner identifies December 2024 as a key turning point, coinciding with Google's unveiling of its Willow Chip, which sharpened focus on quantum computing advancements. Neuner argues this represents "the biggest unanswered question mark in crypto right now"—a real, unhedgeable security risk causing large capital to pause. This hesitation, rather than market exhaustion, is seen as the driver behind BTC's slowdown.
The institutional unease is manifesting in concrete portfolio shifts. In 2025, widely followed strategist Christopher Wood of Jefferies Group removed Bitcoin entirely from his model portfolio, replacing it fully with gold. Wood's decision was reportedly driven by long-term cryptographic security concerns, not macro conditions.
Eliezer Ndinga, Global Head of Research at 21Shares, echoed this sentiment, stating that unless developers address the quantum threat, Bitcoin won't rally soon. "If we get past the quantum threat, then Bitcoin can go to $180,000," Ndinga told DL News, but for now, "it's a cloud in the air." He emphasized the magnitude of the risk, citing Chaincode Labs research suggesting 20% to 50% of all Bitcoin (worth $400 billion to $900 billion) could be vulnerable to theft by quantum computers, including Satoshi Nakamoto's alleged stash.
In response, developers are working on solutions, though progress is slow. BIP 360, a proposal for quantum-resistant Bitcoin addresses authored by developers Hunter Beast and Ethan Heilman, is in its second year of development. The proposal aims to allow users to voluntarily move funds into protected addresses without breaking existing systems. Beast acknowledged the urgency but cautioned against rushing a "half-baked solution," noting the general consensus is that there is still time.
