Bitcoin's on-chain profitability has flipped negative for the first time since October 2023, a key indicator signaling a potential shift in market sentiment from bullish confidence to caution. According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin holders have realized losses totaling approximately 69,000 BTC (worth around $6.1 billion) since December 2025.
This shift in on-chain metrics, where more Bitcoin is being sold at a loss than at a profit, is a classic signal that often follows a break in momentum. Analysts note a striking resemblance to the pattern observed in 2021-2022, where realized profits peaked in January 2024 and have since formed a series of lower highs, culminating in the current period of net losses. This pattern preceded the prolonged bear market of 2022, raising concerns that Bitcoin may be entering the early phases of a similar downturn.
Technically, Bitcoin's price action reflects this indecision. Currently hovering around $89.6K, the cryptocurrency is in a neutral-to-bearish consolidation phase. Key indicators like the MACD remain below zero, and the RSI sits in a neutral range around 48-50, suggesting a lack of strong directional momentum. Trading volume has also tapered off, indicating market participants are waiting for a clearer signal.
The critical near-term focus is the $80K to $75K support zone. This range holds significant historical and psychological importance. If Bitcoin can maintain support above $75K, the market could enter a stabilization or sideways phase, allowing sentiment and leverage to reset. However, a decisive break below this support could lead to an expansion of on-chain losses and potentially trigger a deeper correction. The market's next direction hinges on this key price level.
