Prominent crypto analyst Crypto Rover has issued a dramatic warning, highlighting a technical breakdown for Bitcoin. His analysis points to Bitcoin falling below a long-term ascending channel and breaching the $87,000 level, which many technical traders interpret as a potential trend change from bullish to bearish. This move has nullified previous bullish patterns, leading traders to scout for lower support zones, with a critical structural support area identified around $86,500.
Market sentiment is further pressured by global macro conditions, including increasing geopolitical tensions and uncertain economic growth data. A flight to safety is evident, with gold surpassing $5,000, indicating high risk-off behavior among investors, a phase where cryptocurrencies typically underperform.
Analysts are split on Bitcoin's next major move. The asset is currently trading near $87,800 after briefly falling to $86,000, its lowest level in over a month, marking a more than 5% drop over the past week. Analyst Junkie suggests a five-wave bearish pattern based on Elliott Wave Theory may be complete, potentially setting the stage for a short-term corrective bounce. This could see Bitcoin retest a trendline and possibly reach the $91,000 to $92,000 range.
Conversely, The Maverick of Wall Street points to a bear flag forming on the weekly chart, a pattern that often precedes further declines. A breakdown from this flag could target a move down to $60,000, aligning with the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) near $57,800 as a potential ultimate support. Bitcoin has also fallen below its 50-week SMA, around $101,000.
On-chain metrics reinforce the ongoing weakness. Data shows Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is falling but remains above zero, suggesting full market capitulation has not yet occurred. The Delta Growth Rate has turned negative, indicating a slowdown in speculative buying. A CryptoQuant report notes that more holders are selling at a loss, marking the first time profit margins have dropped this significantly in over two years.
The immediate future hinges on Bitcoin's ability to hold key support levels near $86,500. A break below could trigger further downside and increased volatility, while a successful bounce may allow for a short-term recovery. The long-term adoption narrative for Bitcoin remains intact, but short-term risk management is paramount for traders navigating this uncertain period.
