Hedera's HBAR token is under significant selling pressure, with technical analysis pointing to a potential 20% decline as it falls out of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, being overtaken by Shiba Inu (SHIB). Over the past seven days, HBAR has dropped more than 10%, weakening its price structure and pushing its market rank down to 26th.
The decline is not seen as a routine pullback. Analysts highlight a developing head-and-shoulders pattern on the price chart, with a neckline near $0.102. A daily close below this level could activate a projected downside move to around $0.080. This bearish structure is reinforced by the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which has broken below zero, signaling net capital outflows. A similar CMF breakdown in early December preceded a nearly 25% price drop for HBAR.
Sentiment data adds another layer of pressure. Positive sentiment surrounding Hedera has fallen to its lowest level since late October. Historically, such sentiment troughs have aligned closely with subsequent price declines. With both technical structure and market sentiment pointing downward, the risk of a deeper correction is elevated.
Despite the bearish outlook, some metrics offer a narrow path for a potential rebound. Spot exchange data shows net outflows of HBAR, with roughly $1.6 million leaving exchanges on January 25, which can signal dip buying or accumulation. Furthermore, derivatives data from Bitget reveals a significant imbalance in HBAR perpetual futures, with cumulative short liquidation exposure at $7.40 million compared to $4.28 million for longs. This 70% skew means a modest price recovery could trigger a short squeeze, accelerating upside moves.
Critical price levels to watch are $0.100-$0.102 on the downside and $0.105 to $0.112 on the upside. A move above $0.112 would invalidate the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern and likely trigger liquidations. The token's fall in rank highlights the impact of recent weakness, as Shiba Inu's comparatively stable market cap allowed it to jump ahead. Analysts note the shift reflects short-term trading dynamics and sentiment rather than changes in Hedera's underlying network technology.
