The upcoming release of a documentary film about former First Lady Melania Trump has injected speculative interest into two Solana-based political meme coins, MELANIA and TRUMP. The film, directed by Brett Ratner and acquired by Amazon, is set for a global theatrical release on January 30, 2026.
Market Reaction and Technical Analysis
Following a private White House screening on January 24, which was attended by high-profile figures including Mike Tyson and Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, the MELANIA token saw a 17% price increase over the past week, trading around $0.176. Technical analysis indicates the token is forming a cup-and-handle pattern on its daily chart, projecting a potential 111% upside if confirmed. However, this bullish structure is currently unsupported by trading volume, which has remained largely muted on both decentralized (DEX) and centralized exchanges (CEX).
In contrast, the TRUMP token, despite showing stronger on-chain accumulation by whales—with holdings increasing by over 17% in the past week—continues to struggle. The token is down 93% since its launch prior to the 2025 presidential inauguration and is trading near $4.80. It is currently trading within a falling wedge pattern, which could signal a potential 56% upside breakout if it closes above the $5.15 resistance level.
On-Chain and Sentiment Data Reveal Divergence
On-chain data reveals a notable divergence in whale activity. While both tokens have seen accumulation, TRUMP whales increased their holdings at nearly double the rate of MELANIA whales over the past week. Despite this, retail participation, as measured by DEX volume, has collapsed for both assets. TRUMP's daily DEX volume has fallen over 95% from a peak of $157 million on January 3 to roughly $7.5 million.
Social sentiment metrics further highlight the difference. TRUMP maintains a significantly higher social dominance score of 0.39% compared to MELANIA's 0.006%. Sentiment for MELANIA peaked around January 20 but has since cooled, raising questions about whether hype can be sustained through the documentary's release.
Criticism and Broader Context
The tokens have faced criticism from figures like Anthony Scaramucci, who labeled them "gambling tokens" that risk commodifying political influence and undermining the credibility of both the presidency and the crypto industry. The market activity for these coins is unfolding against a backdrop of political controversy, including the Trump administration's response to the killing of a VA nurse by ICE agents.
Key Levels and Outlook
Analysts note that both tokens are at critical technical decision points. For MELANIA, a daily close above $0.190 with expanding volume is needed for a bullish confirmation, while a drop below $0.098 would invalidate the current setup. For TRUMP, the key resistance is at $5.15, with support at $4.64. The two tokens share a high long-term price correlation of 0.88, meaning momentum in one often influences the other. The overarching question is whether the documentary release will catalyze the sustained volume needed to drive a rally, or if the current activity represents early positioning that will fade post-event.
