A viral claim from YoungHoon Kim, holder of a Guinness-recognized IQ score of 276, has ignited a fresh debate across the cryptocurrency market. Kim declared that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle is dead and that the market is now entering a decade-long supercycle. This statement, shared widely on social media, challenges a core belief held by many investors and analysts.
For years, the dominant narrative has been that Bitcoin moves in four-year cycles, closely aligned with its halving events. These events, which reduce the supply of new BTC, have historically preceded major bull markets, with peaks observed in 2013, 2017, and 2021, and a surge following the 2024 halving. This pattern became a key analytical tool for market participants.
Proponents of the new supercycle thesis, including Kim, argue that the market's dynamics are fundamentally shifting. They point to institutional adoption, the success of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and Bitcoin's growing acceptance as a legitimate financial asset as forces that could lead to prolonged growth with fewer severe crashes. This view is supported by a Fidelity report from December 2025, which suggested strong ETF inflows could support long-term price appreciation with smaller drawdowns than in past cycles.
Further backing comes from prominent industry figures. Analysts from Bitwise and BitMEX, including co-founder Arthur Hayes, support the transition toward a market of sustained growth. They argue that global macroeconomic factors—such as market liquidity and interest rates—are becoming the dominant price catalysts, displacing the internal supply shock of halvings. Changpeng Zhao and Matt Hougan have also noted that regulatory clarity and Bitcoin's integration into traditional finance are redefining its market behavior.
However, many analysts remain cautious. While acknowledging Bitcoin's evolving nature, they warn that historical data still shows a pattern of sharp corrections and high volatility. Crucially, no peer-reviewed research confirms the guaranteed arrival of a supercycle. The market currently sits between the old cyclical model and a potential new structure, with the ultimate outcome still an open question. As of the report, Bitcoin's price was noted to be hovering around $90,226, with technical indicators showing accumulation zones that some interpret as preceding multi-year rallies.
