Crypto analysts are locked in a debate over the state of Bitcoin's market cycle, with prominent voices warning that the bullish phase may have already concluded. Crypto expert Tony Severino argues that traditional cycle theory and macroeconomic indicators, particularly the U.S. ISM Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), signal the primary cycle is complete. He points to a pattern of lower highs and lower lows in the PMI, which currently sits around 47.9, as evidence of a weakening manufacturing environment and a cycle that has peaked and is "rolling over."
Severino warned that a sustained drop below 46 would signal a more pronounced intermediate downtrend, and a fall beneath 41.6 would imply economic conditions rivaling the Great Financial Crisis or 1970s stagflation. This macro backdrop, he contends, directly challenges the narrative of an imminent new Bitcoin bull run. He also criticizes popular valuation models, noting Bitcoin is currently lagging behind gold and silver, which are attracting consistent inflows while BTC shows "fatigue" around the $80,000 level.
Adding to the bearish technical perspective, Severino's analysis of monthly charts shows Bitcoin breaking below a key moving average—a pattern that historically preceded drawdowns averaging around 50%. Based on this, he has floated a downside target of at least $45,000 before any potential bullish reversal.
Echoing concerns of a prolonged struggle, analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests Bitcoin's downtrend could last longer than many hope. He cautions that a swift rotation of capital from traditional assets like gold and silver—which recently hit all-time highs of $5,608.33 and $121.64 respectively—into crypto is not guaranteed by historical patterns. Market sentiment reflects this caution, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently hitting an "extreme fear" level of 16.
However, not all analysts share this pessimistic view. Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal believes Bitcoin may be nearing a turning point, historically following gold's movements during macroeconomic stress. He speculates a shift could occur by February or March, with a potential bottom forming in the next 40 days. Similarly, Andre Dragosch of Bitwise Europe argues Bitcoin is trading at a significant discount to gold and sees Q1 2026 as a potential inflection point. The market now watches to see if Bitcoin will decouple from its recent lag and follow the precious metal's lead.
