David Schwartz, the former Chief Technology Officer of Ripple and a key architect of the XRP Ledger, has publicly challenged the widespread community speculation that the XRP token could surge to $100 or more. In a detailed post on social media platform X, Schwartz applied a fundamental financial logic to argue that such extreme price targets are not supported by current market behavior.
Schwartz's core argument hinges on the concept of expected value. He stated that if a significant number of rational investors genuinely believed there was even a 10% chance of XRP reaching $100 within a few years, they would be aggressively buying the asset at its current price of under $2. "Those with that belief would quickly buy up most of the XRP, because they'd value it more," he wrote. The fact that XRP continues to trade far below $10, at approximately $1.75, indicates to him that very few market participants hold that high-conviction belief.
The former Ripple executive directly criticized the inflated predictions, sometimes as high as $589 or $1,000, that have circulated for years within parts of the XRP community. He emphasized that these projections are not grounded in the actions of real investors, creating a gap between "aspirational community narratives and the sober probabilities reflected in trading activity." Schwartz added that anyone claiming a high probability of a $100 XRP while the price remains low "is not telling the truth."
Despite his caution, Schwartz acknowledged the market's unpredictability, recalling his own past misjudgment when he sold XRP at $0.10. His comments serve as a reality check for investors clinging to hopes of an explosive rally. The current technical landscape for XRP is challenging, with the token down over 8% in the past week and approximately 44% over the last year, trading about 25% below its 200-day moving average.
This sobering perspective exists alongside some positive fundamental developments. U.S. spot XRP ETFs saw nearly $92 million in net inflows in January 2026, and data from Santiment shows 42 new wallets holding at least one million XRP have appeared since the start of the year, suggesting accumulation by large holders. Analyst firm 21Shares has published a more measured 2026 base-case price target near $2.45, contingent on sustained ETF inflows and adoption of Ripple's stablecoin.
