Cardano's native token, ADA, has extended its sharp correction, falling below the $0.28 level on Monday, February 2, 2026. This decline follows a 15% drop the previous week, with the token retesting the October 10 low of $0.27 over the weekend. The sell-off coincides with broader market pressure, as Bitcoin slipped under the $75,000 mark.
Significant selling pressure is emanating from large holders, or "whales." Data from Santiment reveals that addresses holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA tokens have collectively sold 160 million ADA since Thursday. This substantial offloading by major stakeholders is contributing to the downward price momentum, placing current prices roughly 35% below early January forecasts that projected a trading range between $0.40 and $0.45.
Technical indicators point to deeply oversold conditions. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reading near 28, a level that historically suggests potential for a short-term bounce. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in bearish territory, and ADA is trading below all major moving averages, including the 200-day SMA at $0.62.
The immediate battleground is a critical support zone. Analysts identify strong support at $0.25-$0.27, with a break below potentially targeting the October 2023 low of $0.24. A more severe worst-case scenario, dependent on broader market weakness, could see a drop toward $0.13. For any recovery, ADA must first reclaim $0.29 with volume, facing initial resistance at $0.31-$0.32.
Despite the bearish price action, on-chain data presents a conflicting signal. Whale order books on exchanges have surged with each price dip, according to CryptoQuant, suggesting accumulation by major players. Furthermore, Open Interest (OI) in ADA futures remained elevated at $840 million in mid-January, though this is interpreted as bearish positioning rather than bullish sentiment. The token's short-term trajectory hinges on its ability to hold the $0.267 support while navigating these mixed signals from large investors.
