Bitcoin's current market position, having broken below its 365-day moving average (365DMA), is drawing direct comparisons to historical correction phases, suggesting the current downturn is part of a familiar pattern rather than an unprecedented event. A chart analysis from CryptoQuant overlays the current trajectory, which began on November 12, 2025, with similar breakdowns from 2018, 2020, and 2022.
The analysis reveals that while the present correction has progressed more rapidly in terms of price decline than the early 2022 cycle, it remains in the early-to-mid phase when measured by time elapsed since the breakdown. Historically, corrections following a 365DMA downside cross have not resolved quickly, with prices typically remaining under pressure for extended periods before stabilizing or reversing. The chart indicates no precedent for an immediate reversal after such a breakdown, emphasizing a pattern of prolonged adjustment.
Concurrently, market stress indicators are flashing warning signs reminiscent of past bear markets. Data shows Bitcoin's UTXOs in Loss have re-entered the 27–30% zone, and the 3-day simple moving average of Net Realized Profit & Loss has hit -$317 million per day, a level last seen in December 2022. This suggests loss realization is gaining momentum among market participants.
A key structural change underpinning the current cycle's weakness is the muted effect of Bitcoin's post-halving scarcity narrative, largely attributed to the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Unlike the massive rallies that preceded the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, Bitcoin's year-end return on investment for 2025 was -6.3%. Institutional ETF flows, which have recently seen significant weekly outflows, are cited as capping the upside volatility that fueled previous cycles. This has led analysts to speculate that 2026 could result in the softest post-halving bear market yet, driven more by loss realization than by a correction following euphoric highs.
