Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, is once again making waves with significant token movements and market analysis. According to on-chain data from Lookonchain, Hayes recently transferred large amounts of three DeFi tokens, likely to sell. The transfers involved 8.57 million ENA (worth approximately $1.06 million), 2.04 million ETHFI ($954,000), and 950,000 PENDLE ($1.14 million).
This pattern of selling during perceived market uncertainty is familiar for Hayes. In August 2025, he executed several large sell-offs, predicting a major market correction. That move backfired, as assets like Ethereum (ETH) surged shortly after, leading Hayes to publicly express regret on X and promise not to take ETH profits again. However, data from November 2025 showed he sold 520 ETH for $1.66 million alongside ENA and ETHFI. By late December, reports indicated he had repurchased PENDLE, LDO, ENA, and ETHFI. If the current transfers result in sales, they could lead to substantial losses given the recent market downturn.
Simultaneously, Hayes provided a detailed analysis of the forces behind Bitcoin's recent sharp decline. In a February 7 post on X, he attributed the crash to institutional dealer hedging related to structured financial products, specifically notes linked to BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). Hayes explained that when Bitcoin's price falls, the financial institutions issuing these notes are forced to sell the underlying asset to manage their delta-hedging risk, especially when prices hit pre-determined principal-protection trigger levels.
"I will be compiling a complete list of all issued notes by the banks to better understand trigger points that could cause rapid price rises and falls," Hayes wrote. He clarified this is not a "secret plot" but a standard mechanism in traditional finance that, in crypto, creates a volatile feedback loop where "selling begets further selling." He added that the lack of bailouts allows the market to clear over-leveraged positions swiftly.
The commentary arrives during a turbulent period where Bitcoin recently saw its worst single-day performance since the FTX collapse in November 2022. Other analysts, like Pantera Capital's Franklin Bi, have offered alternative theories, suggesting the sell-off may have originated from a distressed, Asia-based entity using leveraged strategies on Binance, funded by the Japanese yen carry trade.