The price of Cardano's native token, ADA, has continued its sharp decline, reaching its lowest level since February 2021 amidst a broader cryptocurrency market crash. As of the report, ADA was trading around $0.2650, representing an 80% drop from its December 2024 high and a 91% retreat from its all-time high of $3.
A potential major catalyst for ADA is the scheduled launch of ADA futures contracts on the CME Group exchange on February 9. This listing is significant as it will make the asset available to a wider range of institutional and retail traders. Historically, similar futures launches for assets like Solana (SOL) and Ripple (XRP) have preceded price rallies.
However, analysts caution that the positive impact of the futures launch may be muted. The event is occurring during a severe market downturn, meaning broader negative sentiment could outweigh the listing's importance. Furthermore, some market participants may have already priced in the launch. Cardano also faces fundamental challenges, having lost favor with investors as it has been outpaced by competing chains like Solana, BNB Chain, and Ethereum. Its DeFi total value locked (TVL) remains under $300 million, and it holds a minimal share of the stablecoin market with only $30 million in assets.
Technically, ADA is testing a crucial historical support zone between $0.10 and $0.20. Analyst Crypto Patel notes this is the "exact level" that triggered a major rally in a previous cycle, suggesting it is a region where buyers have historically stepped in. The weekly chart shows ADA has broken below the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipping into oversold territory near 30.
Looking ahead, the immediate price action for ADA is seen as neutral, heavily dependent on whether it holds the key support level. A bounce could target resistance levels near $0.40 and then $1.32. A decisive weekly close below $0.10, however, would invalidate the bullish support thesis and open the door for further downside. Meanwhile, the Cardano development team, led by Charles Hoskinson, is attempting to address ecosystem gaps through a 70 million ADA fund aimed at attracting oracles, stablecoins, and analytics tools, with the Midnight mainnet launch anticipated for February or March.
