Wall Street bank Citigroup has significantly lowered its price target for Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) from $505 to $400, a 20.8% downward revision. The adjustment, communicated in a client note on Friday, reflects a more cautious outlook driven by weaker cryptocurrency trading volumes, a slowdown in institutional activity, and persistent uncertainty around the timing of comprehensive U.S. crypto legislation.
Despite the near-term reset, Citigroup maintained its "Buy/High Risk" rating on the stock, reiterating its view that Coinbase remains the category leader and a prime beneficiary of eventual crypto regulatory reform. The new $400 target still implies a potential doubling from COIN's recent closing price of $146.
The bank's analysts, led by Peter Christiansen, have trimmed their fourth-quarter 2025 net revenue forecast for Coinbase by roughly 10% to $1.69 billion, which is about 4% below consensus estimates. After accounting for a $2.3 billion mark-to-market decline on the company's crypto holdings and its equity stake in Circle, the analysts now project a fourth-quarter GAAP EPS loss of $2.64. Coinbase is scheduled to release its Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results after the market close on February 12.
A key catalyst identified for reviving the stock's momentum is progress on the proposed Crypto Asset Market Structure legislation, often referred to as the CLARITY Act. However, Citigroup now expects Senate negotiations over the bill to stretch beyond 2026. The legislation has faced repeated delays as crypto and banking lobbyists clash over issues like stablecoin yield, and lawmakers remain deadlocked on several provisions.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently stated that his firm had withdrawn support for a sweeping digital assets bill after finding provisions that could harm consumers and stifle competition. The bank's analysis underscores that regulatory clarity is seen as essential for reducing operational uncertainty and potentially stimulating renewed institutional participation in the crypto market.
