Cryptocurrency analyst Egrag Crypto has shared a detailed technical analysis of XRP, suggesting that the recent sharp drop in its Relative Strength Index (RSI) represents a crucial momentum reset rather than a bearish signal. Egrag applied Elliott Wave theory to XRP's price structure, arguing that the current correction represents the completion of a major Wave 2, which typically precedes the most powerful and expansive Wave 3 in the cycle.
Egrag stated that while the RSI drop is negative for the short term, it is "very good for the long term." He described the move as shaking out impatient sellers and setting the stage for a significant upward movement. The analyst believes the price chart shows the end of a large correction, not a smaller one, reinforcing the potential for a substantial rally ahead.
This analysis comes as XRP's valuation recently plummeted to a 14-month low of $1.11 during a broader market crash, causing its market capitalization to briefly shrink to nearly $70 billion. The violent price movement pushed XRP's RSI to as low as 13, territory last seen during the October 2025 collapse, before recovering to around 40. Technical analysts typically consider RSI readings below 30 as oversold conditions that could signal a potential rebound.
Despite the price recovery to nearly $1.40, questions remain about whether this represents a genuine recovery or a temporary dead-cat bounce. Notably, spot XRP ETF netflows have remained positive in recent days, suggesting continued institutional interest even as Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced significant outflows.
However, not all analysts share Egrag's optimism. Some industry participants, including X user FEXIR | CRYPTO, predict that XRP could tumble below $0.50, while Charting Guy warns of a potential drop to $1. Concerns are reinforced by data showing investors have been transferring coins to Binance, with exchange reserves now standing at almost 2.73 billion XRP—a development often interpreted as a pre-sale step that could precede further selling pressure.
