According to Jeff Park, partner and chief investment officer at ProCap Financial, Bitcoin's next major bull market catalyst may not stem from traditional accommodative monetary policies like interest rate cuts. In an interview with Anthony Pompliano, Park argued that the long-assumed linkage between Bitcoin price appreciation and increasing global liquidity has "been broken for quite some time."
Park pointed to 2025's rising global liquidity, estimated at roughly $170 trillion, and strong rallies in other asset classes like metals and corporate credit, noting that Bitcoin did not participate in this broad-based strength. This divergence, he contends, signals that investors should abandon backward-looking heuristics, such as the belief that quantitative easing (QE) or lower rates reliably lift BTC.
Instead, Park introduced a framework contrasting "negative rho" and "positive rho" Bitcoin. The former represents the traditional risk-asset dynamic: rates down, risk up, Bitcoin up. The latter is described as the "mythical, elusive perfect holy grail"—a scenario where Bitcoin's price rises even as the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates. This "positive rho" regime would fundamentally challenge the concept of a stable "risk-free" rate and question the credibility of the existing monetary order.
Park suggested this shift could be accelerated by a potential change in Federal Reserve leadership, specifically mentioning former Fed governor Kevin Warsh. He portrayed Warsh as a figure with institutional fluency and a genuine belief in Bitcoin's technological utility, who could help rewrite the Fed-Treasury accord. The core issue, according to Park, is the Triffin dilemma and the tension between the dollar's roles, necessitating greater Fed interdependence with the Treasury, not independence.
The analyst concluded that more accommodative policies may not be the catalyst for Bitcoin's next bull phase. Instead, Bitcoin's value proposition strengthens in a "wartime" economic environment where industrial, military, and fiscal policy dominate, and capital controls become more plausible. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $66,396.
