The global financial markets are bracing for a pivotal week from February 9th to 13th, 2025, packed with high-stakes economic events that are expected to trigger significant volatility across all asset classes, including cryptocurrencies. The week's agenda is dominated by a series of Federal Reserve official speeches and the release of two crucial U.S. economic reports: the January Nonfarm Payrolls and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The Federal Reserve's communication blitz begins on Sunday, February 9th, with speeches from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and FOMC member Raphael Bostic. This is followed by remarks from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan on February 10th and 12th, and a speech from FOMC member Michelle Bowman on February 11th. This coordinated effort is a standard post-FOMC meeting strategy to guide market expectations on inflation, employment, and the future path of interest rates.
The hard data arrives with the January Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate report on Tuesday, February 11th. Market participants will scrutinize the headline job creation number, the unemployment rate, and particularly the Average Hourly Earnings figure for signs of wage-driven inflation. A strong report could delay expectations for Fed rate cuts, while a weak one might accelerate them. This will be complemented by the more timely Initial Jobless Claims data on February 12th.
The most anticipated event of the week is the release of the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday, February 13th. Both the headline and core (excluding food and energy) CPI figures will be dissected. The trajectory of core services inflation, especially shelter costs, remains a critical focus. A hotter-than-expected print could cement a "higher for longer" interest rate environment, while continued disinflation would bolster arguments for imminent policy easing. Historically, even a 0.1-0.2 percentage point deviation from consensus can move major stock indices by over 1% and cause substantial repricing in rate futures.
The crypto market enters this volatile period in a fragile state. Following a massive $700 billion rout the previous week, total market capitalization hovered around $2.45 trillion, its lowest since November 2024. Bitcoin had recovered to approximately $71,000 after crashing to around $60,000, but remains 44% below its all-time high. Ethereum reclaimed $2,100 but is down 58% from its peak, with most altcoins still severely depressed.
Analysts emphasize the interconnected impact of these events. Strong jobs and sticky CPI data would likely strengthen the U.S. dollar and push Treasury yields higher, creating headwinds for risk assets like cryptocurrencies, which have shown increased correlation to traditional markets. As Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones, noted, "We’ll see if any either weakness in the labor market data or any surprising cool-down in inflation accelerates a bit the timeline for when the market thinks the next rate cut may be delivered." The collective data will serve as a vital stress test for the prevailing "soft landing" economic narrative.
