Bitcoin ($BTC) has entered a critical phase this weekend, with its Mayer Multiple indicator plunging to 0.6, signaling a deep capitulation event. This reading indicates that the flagship cryptocurrency is trading approximately 40% below its 200-day moving average, a deviation that market analysts say differs from typical corrections and marks a "full-blown capitulation phase."
According to data from CryptoQuant and analysis by on-chain analyst Ruga Research, such extreme readings have historically paralleled key market bottoms. Notable instances include the bear market bottom in December 2018, the COVID crash of March 2020, and the FTX fallout in November 2022. In each of these cases, the Mayer Multiple fell to the 0.5–0.6 range, preceding massive price recoveries of 540%, 1,100%, and over 170%, respectively.
As of Saturday, February 8, 2026, Bitcoin was trading at $69,198.65, reflecting a 2.27% drop over 24 hours. Its weekly and monthly performances show more significant plunges of 12.16% and 23.94%, respectively, with its market capitalization down 2.16% to $1.38 trillion. However, the extreme capitulation signal has sparked speculation among market participants that Bitcoin could be nearing a cyclical bottom, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and disciplined accumulation.
Ruga Research emphasized a crucial caveat: while the Mayer Multiple highlights statistical extremes and long-term expectations, it does not precisely pinpoint when a bottom will form. The metric could see further downside or consolidation before any sustained upward movement. Nevertheless, the current reading underscores that Bitcoin is trading at a significant discount relative to its long-term trend, increasing hope for a notable market shift in the near term.
