Digital asset manager CoinShares has released a comprehensive analysis concluding that the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin's security is real but not an immediate crisis, with ample time for the network to adapt through soft-fork upgrades. The research, led by CoinShares Bitcoin research head Christopher Bendiksen, estimates that only a small fraction of Bitcoin's total supply is practically vulnerable to a theoretical quantum attack.
The firm's analysis highlights that approximately 1.7 million BTC (roughly 8% of supply) resides in legacy pay-to-public-key (P2PK) addresses where public keys are exposed. However, Bendiksen argues that only a subset of this pool—specifically about 10,230 BTC held in larger wallets—would be economically worthwhile for an attacker to target. This equates to roughly $719.1 million at current prices, a sale volume CoinShares suggests could "resemble a routine trade." The remaining 1.62 million BTC in smaller wallets are considered impractical to attack, with the process potentially taking "a millennium" even under optimistic quantum advancement scenarios.
CoinShares frames the quantum vulnerability as a foreseeable engineering challenge rather than an emergency. The report notes that breaking Bitcoin's core Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) would require quantum computers with millions of fault-tolerant qubits, a scale far beyond current technology. For context, Google's latest quantum computer, Willow, operates with 105 qubits. Researchers estimate that even the most advanced systems are 10 to 100,000 times too weak, pushing any meaningful risk horizon into the 2030s or later.
Concurrently, the report and broader market commentary signal a shift in investor focus from theoretical Layer-1 infrastructure risks to immediate, practical disruptions at the application layer. This is exemplified by the burgeoning $85 billion creator economy, where legacy platforms charge fees as high as 70%, creating a vacuum for decentralized alternatives.
Projects like SUBBD Token ($SUBBD) are capitalizing on this shift by merging EVM-compatible smart contracts with AI tools. The platform offers AI voice cloning and personal assistants to help creators automate interactions and scale their presence, aiming to eliminate high intermediary fees. The project has demonstrated early traction, raising over $1.47 million in its presale. It also features a staking model offering a 20% APY in the first year to incentivize long-term participation.
The debate within the Bitcoin community continues between those, like MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor and Blockstream's Adam Back, who view the quantum threat as overblown for decades, and others, like Capriole Investments' Charles Edwards, who see it as an "existential threat" that warrants proactive upgrades. CoinShares cautions that aggressive hard forks could introduce new risks and favors a gradual, voluntary migration path for the network.
