On-chain data and market analysis indicate that Bitcoin's recent price recovery to $70,000 is not a sign of a trend reversal, but rather a fragile rebound in a market starved of new liquidity. According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin currently has "no bullish potential" and is in a situation where "pumping, or price increases, is impossible." This stark assessment is based on a critical breakdown in the capital inflow dynamic that previously fueled bull markets.
Ju highlighted a stark contrast between 2024 and 2025. In 2024, a $10 billion capital inflow increased Bitcoin's market value by $26 billion, demonstrating a strong multiplier effect. However, in 2025, despite a massive $308 billion capital inflow, Bitcoin's market capitalization actually decreased by $98 billion. This inconsistency reveals a market structure where intense selling pressure is completely absorbing new capital, preventing it from translating into sustainable price gains.
CryptoQuant's latest data confirms this, showing that new investor inflows have turned negative. This means fresh money is no longer entering the market to absorb sell orders. Instead, capital is leaving, reinforcing downside momentum. Analysts note this behavior aligns more with early bear-market conditions than with healthy bull-market corrections, where dips typically act as magnets for new capital.
Sentiment data from Santiment supports this fragile environment, indicating that 2026's volatility has eroded confidence in dip-buying. Optimistic spikes are short-lived, often reflecting short covering rather than strong conviction, leading to rallies that quickly lose momentum.
The core issue is identified as a liquidity constraint. Bitcoin's significantly larger market cap now requires a steady and substantial level of circulating liquidity just to be maintained. Ongoing stablecoin outflows and a shrinking stablecoin market cap signal that this necessary liquidity is currently unavailable. Analysts warn that without a broader expansion of available capital in the crypto ecosystem, any BTC recovery is likely to be temporary.
While the outlook is not permanently fixed—macroeconomic data on inflation and unemployment could shift monetary policy expectations and risk appetite—the consensus is clear. Until the imbalance between selling pressure and new, sustained liquidity inflows is resolved, the doors to a significant Bitcoin upward trend remain closed.
