Ethereum's recent price decline has pushed it below a critical on-chain valuation threshold that has marked the last three major market bottoms. According to analyst Ali Martinez, ETH recently dropped below the 0.80 Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) pricing band, a level currently valued at approximately $1,959.
The MVRV Ratio compares Ethereum's market capitalization to its Realized Cap, which calculates the total value of all ETH based on the price at which each token was last transacted. This provides an estimate of the total capital invested. A ratio below 1 indicates the average investor is in a state of unrealized loss. Martinez highlighted that "the last three times Ethereum $ETH dipped below the 0.80 Pricing Band, it marked a market bottom."
Analysts are divided on whether this signals an immediate reversal. Michaël van de Poppe argues Ethereum is "deeply undervalued," with its current MVRV positioning comparable to historic buying opportunities like the March 2020 COVID crash, the December 2018 bear market bottom, the June 2022 post-Terra capitulation, and the April 2025 market crash. He views this as a "tremendous opportunity."
However, on-chain analyst Jao Wedson urges caution. He notes that while Ethereum's MVRV Z-Score has entered the capitulation zone at -0.42, it remains above the extreme low of -0.76 recorded in December 2018. Wedson emphasizes that capitulation is typically a process, and historical data suggests further volatility and potential downside may occur before a definitive structural low is established.
Following its plunge last week, Ethereum has rebounded slightly, with its price recovering to around $2,044, putting it back above the key 0.80 MVRV band. The debate now centers on whether this breach will, for a fourth time, precede a sustained market recovery or if more pain lies ahead for ETH holders.
