The prediction market sector has experienced explosive growth, with annual trading volume quadrupling from $15.8 billion in 2024 to $63.5 billion in 2025, according to a new report from blockchain security firm CertiK. Activity remained elevated into early 2026, with a record $6 billion in weekly volume posted in mid-January.
This rapid expansion has led to significant market concentration. Three platforms—Kalshi, Polymarket, and Opinion—now control over 95% of global prediction market volume. Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated platform, has formalized a comprehensive framework of values and principles to ensure integrity, responsible oversight, and collaboration with regulators like the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The platform has seen its own volumes surge, surpassing $315 million in recent months.
However, CertiK warns that this growth brings critical risks. The primary technical threat identified is oracle manipulation, where the mechanisms determining market resolution and fund distribution could be compromised. Furthermore, the industry faces a centralization paradox. While marketing decentralization, platforms rely on "Web2.5" onboarding—using third-party authentication providers like Magic.link—which creates centralized failure points. A December 2025 incident involving Polymarket's authentication layer exposed user funds to risk, highlighting this vulnerability.
CertiK's report also raises concerns about artificial volume inflation, estimating that up to 60% of activity on some platforms during peak periods was driven by incentive programs and wash trading aimed at airdrop farming. Despite this, the firm notes that probability outputs for forecasting have remained reliable.
Structurally, a shift in blockchain dominance is underway. While Polygon retained dominance through the 2024 U.S. election cycle, BNB Chain volume surged in late 2025, correlating with Opinion's aggressive incentive rollout, and has since captured a plurality of weekly flows.
